A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and caused chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has got something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
